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Olivers Insight's Sep 22

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

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More action out of the RBA this month to support the economy | AMP Capital

In its September board meeting, we saw another move out of the RBA to support the Australian economy through COVID-19, and there could be more to come.

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RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP

Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter.

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Oliver's Insights - The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown

The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.

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Oliver's Insights - 2019-20 saw poor returns - but it could have been much worse

The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

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Oliver's Insights - How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases?

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.

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Oliver's Insights - Shares climb a “wall of worry” - but is it sustainable?

The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions.

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Oliver's Insights

Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

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Oliver's Insights - 10 medium to longer-term implications from the Coronavirus shock

There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc.

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The Lucky Country - three reasons why Australia may come through this period of global misery better than most countries

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country!

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Capital Edition Issue 08

THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF AN INVESTING RULEBOOK.

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Why super and growth assets like shares have to be seen as long-term investments

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.

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Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news.

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Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue

Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue

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Capital Edition Issue 07

MARKETS IN THE AGE OF (MIS) INFORMATION

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What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process

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The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective

Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate

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Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other? What does it mean for the bear market in shares?

Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts.

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The threat to Australian house prices from Coronavirus

The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back.

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Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like these

Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook.

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The increasing economic threat from coronavirus - what to watch for and what should investors do?

The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets.

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Capital edition issue 6

How the next generation is investing?

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The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation.

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The increasing spread of Coronavirus – updated economic and investment market implications

While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields.

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Oliver's Insights - Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction - Key things to watch out for are recession and much higher inflation.

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From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

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Olivers Insights -The China Coronavirus outbreak – economic and investment market implications

The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is more contagious than SARS albeit with lower mortality. Key to watch for is a peak in new cases and contained transmission in developed countries.

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Five charts to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges up and interest rates remain low. > Five key global charts to watch are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth. > So far so good, with PMIs improving a bit, inflation remaining low, the yield curve steepening, the $US showing signs of topping and the US/China trade truce auguring well for some pick up in world trade growth.

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Bushfires and the Australian economy

The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts.

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Learn about refinancing your home loan and how it can save you money

Even if you secured a competitive package when you first took out your home loan, it’s worth reviewing each year1 to ensure the interest rates, fees and features continue to meet your needs. By refinancing you may be able to pay off your home loan sooner.

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Capital Edition - Strength in unity

In this month’s issue we discuss how: James Maydew believes that having culture and strategy on the same blueprint is an absolute imperative climate change is impacting the real estate sector, and how leaders and businesses are standing up to the task of tackling it Julie-Anne Mizzi uses her innate passion for investing in infrastructure for those who need it, and the familiar airport retail experience is set for a makeover.

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Oliver's insights - Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 - the beat goes on

2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets. The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

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7 Tips to Help You Jump Start Your Photography - Australian Photography

Stuck in a photographic rut? Here are seven simple tips to get your creative juices flowing. Story by Andrew Fildes.

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Oliver's Insights

Knowing what's happening in the economic markets can help, together with your financial planner, make confident decisions about your financial well-being. Dr Shane Oliver delivers an up to date and easy to understand view of the global markets through our regular publication "Oliver's Insights"

Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital Investors and one of Australia's most respected economists.

For the latest editions of Oliver's insights, click here

AMP.NATSEM reports

Since 2001, AMP and the National Centre for Social and Economic Modeling (NATSEM) in Canberra have produced a series of reports that open windows on Australian society, the way we live and work - and our financial and personal aspirations.

The reports focus on the distribution of income and wealth as key factors that differentiate generations and segments of society. AMP sponsors this research to help our customers make informed financial and lifestyle choices.

Reports include: "Modern Family - The changing shape of Australian families - October 2013", "The Cost of Kids: the cost of raising children in Australia - May 2013" and "Prices these days! The cost of living in Australia - May 2012". View the reports here.